Indonesian Tin Ingot Exports: Structural Changes Amid Policy Disruptions and the Global Tug-of-War Between Supply and Demand [SMM Analysis]

I. Export Dynamics: Coexistence of Short-Term Recovery and Policy Constraints In January 2025, Indonesia's tin ingot exports plunged to 1.56 kt, down 66.57% MoM, primarily due to seasonal maintenance at smelters and delays in export license approvals. By the end of February, tin ingot trading volumes on Indonesia's ICDX and JFX exchanges rebounded to 4,305 mt, indicating marginal recovery in exports. However, due to the slowdown in production during Ramadan, early March trading volumes on the exchanges pulled back to 1,150 mt. Overall exports in March are expected to remain at low levels with fluctuations. Special attention should be paid to the Indonesian Ministry of Finance's stricter qualification reviews for exporters and adjustments to the quota allocation mechanism, which may suppress short-term exports.

II. Trade Landscape: China's Leadership and Industry Chain Upgrades As the world's largest tin consumer, China absorbed over 60% of Indonesia's tin ingot exports in 2024, forming a deep trade dependency. Currently, 94% of Indonesia's tin ingots are directed to international markets, with Asia (including China), Europe, and North America accounting for 72%, 18%, and 10%, respectively. Notably, the Indonesian government is accelerating the implementation of the "Strategic Plan for Downstream Development of Non-Ferrous Metals," aiming to restrict exports of primary products (such as tin ingots) to drive capacity building for high-value-added products (e.g., electronic solder, PV welding strips). This policy direction may reshape the global division of labor in the tin industry chain.

III. Supply Variables: Interplay of Policy Disruptions and Resumption Expectations The core imbalance in Indonesia's restricted exports lies in the strengthened enforcement of policies: in 2024, customs implemented a "resource tax invoice traceability mechanism," coupled with the spillover effects of the 2025 nickel ore resource tax adjustment plan (linking nickel ore resource tax to HMA prices, which may extend to the tin ore sector), significantly increasing compliance costs for smelters. In contrast, in Myanmar's Wa State, the tin mine resumption process announced in February 2025 (including detailed procedures for mining license applications) marks a major variable on the supply side. Incremental supply is expected to materialize in H2 2025, effectively alleviating domestic shortages of tin concentrates.

IV. Price Logic: Tug-of-War Between Low Inventory Support and Long-Term Pressure In 2024, the average export price of Indonesian tin ingots rose 23.6% YoY, highlighting the tight supply-demand balance in the global tin market. As of March 10, 2025, LME tin inventory remained at a historical low of 3,695 mt, while domestic social inventory continued destocking, decreasing to 8,876 mt, providing strong short-term price support. However, in the medium and long term, the resumption expectations in Myanmar may drive a narrowing of the supply-demand gap. Price trends are expected to exhibit a "backwardation structure."

V. Strategic Recommendations: Indonesian Export Quota Adjustments and Market Inventory Changes Market participants are advised to closely monitor the progress of export quota approvals by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and tax policy adjustments by the Ministry of Finance. Additionally, attention should be paid to the LME cash-3M discount and changes in SHFE warrants. 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM tin spot.